Friday, March 1, 2024 8:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

When the 2023-24 A-10 men’s basketball schedule was released, a lot of folks zeroed in on Friday night’s game with Daton visiting Loyola. The game sold out somewhat early in the year, sometime in November or early December. But hardly anyone thought it was possible that these two teams would enter the month of March tied for second place in the A-10 at 12-3, only one game behind league-leading Richmond.

Dayton was picked to win the league in the 2023-24 Men’s Basketball Preseason Poll, with 20 of the 25 first place votes and DaRon Holmes II as Preseason Player of the Year. The Ramblers were picked to finish 8th after a dismal last-place inaugural season, and Richmond was 11th in that poll.

The Flyers have been the most impressive team in the league throughout the season, for sure. They won 16 of their first 18 games this season, starting out 6-0 in conference. Their only two losses in the first two and a half months of the season were at Northwestern and against Houston on a neutral court. Along the way, they picked up wins against several top 100 teams: LSU, St. John’s, SMU, and Cincinnati. The Flyers broke into the AP Top 25 at #25 on Jan. 15, and rose to #16 the next week. But being the prime target and top home game for most of the teams in the A-10 translated into three losses on visiting courts in league play: 69-64 on Jan. 27 at Richmond, 49-47 at VCU on Feb.9, and 71-67 at George Mason on Feb. 21. Dayton has remained in the Top 25 even with those losses, and comes into Friday night’s game at #21.

Head Coach Anthony Grant, in his 7th season at Dayton, has started the same five every game since the second game of the season. Starting point guard Malachi Smith, on the preseason second team, incurred a torn lateral meniscus seven minutes into the season and has missed every minute since. The Dayton starters are 6’10” junior center DaRon Holmes II, 6’7” junior forward Nate Santos, 6’3” junior guard Enoch Cheeks, 6’2” junior guard Kobe Elvis, and 5’10” sophomore guard Javon Bennett.

Holmes averages 20 points and 8 rebounds per game, even as he’s the focus of every team’s defense. He’s improved his three-point shooting to 37.1%, and takes a lot more long-distance shots this season. He’s one of the top shot blockers in the conference, averaging 2.1 per game, and has improved passing out of double-teams (he averages 2.6 assists per game). He’s the best player in the league by a comfortable margin, the most obvious NBA prospect, and he's ranked as the 2nd best player in the nation (behind only Zach Edey) by KenPom.

Santos is a solidly-built Pitt transfer who finishes really well at the basket and surprises some with his 40.7% three-point shooting; he averages 11.8 points and 6.6 rebounds. Elvis is a very quick guard who shoots a respectable 36.6% from distance, dishes 3.5 assists per game, and averages 9.1 points. Cheeks is another strong guard with a nose for the ball; he puts in 7.3 points and adds 4.8 rebounds per game. Bennett, the guard who was elevated after Smith was injured, has played well enough to start on most teams in the league as a sophomore, chipping in 8.9 points and leading the team in assist (3.6 per game) and steals (1.2 per).

That’s a great starting lineup, but then you have one of the best sixth men in the league in 6’6” guard Koby Brea, who leads the A-10 in three-point shooting percentage at 49.1%. Brea was the A-10’ Sixth Man of the Year as a sophomore in 2021-22, and this year as a Covid-year junior is averaging 10.8 points and 3.8 rebounds playing starter’s minutes off the bench. Six-eleven sophomore center Issac Jack and 6’8” freshman forward Petras Padegimas are able to give the big men a break for 7-10 minutes a game. That’s the end of the bench unless it’s a total blowout.

It’s a really difficult thing to beat Dayton. You’ve got to hold them to under 42% field goal shooting, and hope they are also having an off night on threes or at the free throw line (they’re a 70.8% free throw shooting team, just slightly better than Loyola at 69.2%). Generally, they seem to struggle more at a deliberate pace with long possessions—that’s how Houston, George Mason, Northwestern, and to a lesser extent VCU beat them. In the VCU game, they lost 49-47 while going 9 of 18 from the free throw line. Mason just plain wouldn’t let them get the ball inside the arc. Richmond beat them with the same formula they’ve been beating everyone this year: tough inside defense, hitting timely shots, spreading the floor, benefitting from foul calls.

Expect a whole lot of Flyers fans in attendance at Gentile Arena Friday night. Flyers fans travel well, it’s a Friday night in Chicago (only 285 miles from Dayton), and it’s easy to parlay that into a weekend. There are also a lot of Dayton alumni in Chicago.

I tried to look up the last time we beat a ranked team at home, and I suspect it might have been Butler in the Aughts, but I can’t readily find that info. If you see it somewhere, mention in the comments.


Loyola game notes: https://loyolaramblers.com/documents/20 ... Dayton.pdf

Dayton game notes: https://daytonflyers.com/documents/2024 ... a_Game.pdf

TV/Streaming video: ESPN 2 https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/eve ... =401596929

Radio/Streaming audio: https://loyolaramblers.com/watch/?Live=180&type=Live

Live stats: https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=482160

Vegas odds: Dayton by 1.5

Great preview, as usual.

Holmes will "get his." Nervous about Miles & Dame getting into foul trouble trying to stop him. We need them to win this game so avoiding the dumb fouls (e.g., moving screens, hacking Holmes when he already has position to score).

The key will be playing tough, physical defense on the other guys. I think UD has the most talent on the team. But when they face a hard-nosed physical defense that isn't afraid to scrap it up, they do get flustered. Saw this in their losses to Houston, Richmond & VCU especially.

Dayton fans on Twitter are being extremely…let’s say confident…about their abilities to take over Gentile. Many saying 50%+ will be Dayton. I’m sure there will be a lot, but hard to imagine many Loyola season ticket holders gave up their seats, not to mention a full student section (not sure if they’ll get the extended upper corners tomorrow or not).

Was it even 50+% last year, when we were awful? I was there and recall it being like 60/40 in favor of LU. Given the size of our student section relative to the size of Gentile, it's VERY difficult for any opposing fanbase to achieve 50+%.

Their fans sure are something else though.

An 8 pm tipoff on a Friday night almost guarantees that anyone who went to Dayton will be drunk.

Going to be a fun one tonight.

from a bettors angle, Dayton is a slight favorite. A home underdog versus a ranked opponent is normally a spot to jump on...and this is a sold out arena and a nationally televised game. Someone thinks the Ramblers will win tonight.

Two key factors. Make Holmes as uncomfortable as possible in the paint and he will settle for 3's and assorted jumpers. Also, do not give Santos any space beyond the 3 point line. Go Ramblers!

_________________
Loyola '86
St. Bona '83

Interesting match up, especially considering we are coming off of a poor performance. My thoughts:

1. We will learn tonight how far we have really progressed this year as a team. We played a couple of conference games where our opponents were missing key contributors. Dayton is healthy and looking to stay in the hunt for title. Looking for a bounce back game from us. We need to prove we can beat a Quad 1, ranked team. This would be a huge confidence booster heading into the A10 tourney.

2. Dayton does run a lot of stuff with Holmes in high post. If they do, Miles cannot foul him 20+ feet from the basket. Holmes is big, but not crazy physical. Miles need to stay on the floor and avoid cheap fouls.

3. Dayton has struggled at times against good defensive teams. We need to be solid and make them work. The big question will be how the game is called. Few games ago Dayton lost 49-47 to VCU and it was a rock fight. The officials let both teams play. I will take our chances if tonight's game is called like that. I just hope that the officiating is not one sided where we are getting called for tick tact fouls and Dayton mugs us but we don't get the call. Foul trouble for either team could decide this one.

4. Dayton will have a big crowd. Hope the students stuck around and not too many season ticket holders sold their tix. Of course, get a lead and all crowds get quiet. Some of us season ticket holders may have to turn the clock back and get rowdy!

Go 'Blers!

I have been praying all week for tonight’s officiating assignment to NOT be a combo of Ted Valentine, Jamie Luckie, and/or Lee Cassell

https://www.change.org/p/fire-ncaa-referee-lee-cassell

But chances are we could end up with 2 of these three.

Let’s get wild.