This. While the the path may be clearer for us to win the regular season title than initially expected, that’s not going to guarantee an NCAA bid if we don’t win games that we’re supposed to win. Upsets happen, and they’ve almost happened to us a few times already. As much hype as we’re getting Nationally right now, that will go away quickly if we drop a game or two…especially to teams who will finish towards the bottom of the conference. And, as we’ve seen before, if one of those bad losses happens in St Louis our NCAA chances may evaporate, especially if we lose 3 or 4 or more conference games

Agreed, if we lose to Missouri State this weekend we'll no longer be in the AP top 25. The national spotlight can disappear very quickly. The team has been in a Covid drought and the Valley is never a cake walk. It's unlikely the team stays undefeated in conference play, and to be safe will want to win Arch Madness.

The worry about the top four valley teams, is that it took Loyola 2OT and OT to beat two of the lower half valley teams. If they play like that against Missouri State, UNI, or Drake, it's unlikely they'll come back and win.

Every year we drop a valley game or two we had no business losing. The question re: Bradley/Valpo is- are those good wins given a tough schedule and the inevitable off night, or are they games we should be winning handily and are indicative of a greater problem? We can only tell with hindsight. Go blers.

After watching UNI lose to Valpo & Drake lose to Bradley, I'm starting to think those teams aren't as weak as they appear on paper. I'm not stressed about the team, but a win against MSU on Saturday would make me feel better.

Agreed. We beat the shit of of MSU back to back on their home court last year. If this team is what we hope they are then we're winning this game at home.

I think our #22 ranking makes us feel like more of a lock for an automatic bid than we actually are. Of 68 spots, there are 32 automatic bids. There are about 10 conferences where multiple bids are expected right now, so we will say 22 of these bids will likely be teams that are only making the tournament because they win their conference tourney. That leaves approximately 46 spots for the top 46 teams (This includes the automatic bids for multi bid conferences). Right now we are ranked 21, but we saw the effect that close wins have on our Kenpom and NET rankings. Imagine if instead of a close win, it was a loss. The rest of the way, we have zero chance of "looking better" to anyone with the way the conference has played. If we win? Expected. If we lose? It hurts us with no way of getting any quality wins to make up for it. We have to continue to win and put ourselves in the best position going into Arch Madness

It's way too early in the conference season to feel/consider Loyola as a lock for an autobid, there's still 13 conference games left on the schedule. I think the team can only afford to drop two conference losses to upper half teams before Arch Madness, similar to last year. Analytically speaking, the team has a better chance so far this season for an autobid than they did last season. The question is can they sustain the current success and win at least 11/13 of the upcoming games?

If we lose more than 1 regular season game and again at Arch Madness we are not getting a bid. It just is what it is. The system is designed to work against us.

Seriously?!?

You don't think a 16-2 conference record and an overall 25-27 win, 5 loss record would earn us an at-large bid? I find that hard to believe, even with the system stacked against mid-majors.

I think two losses and a loss in the final at Arch Madness would still leave us in position for an auto bid. Drake go into the first four last year with 3 conference losses and and an arch madness loss. I understand your point though, there isn't much room for error and the team knows that.