Friday, March 6, 2015, 8:35 p.m.
Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Arguably, the team that’s given Loyola the most trouble this season is Indiana State. The Ramblers lost their two games against the Sycamores by 11 and 14 points respectively, and unlike Wichita State (who beat the Ramblers by identical margins) Loyola was never really close in either game against the Trees. In each of the Loyola-ISUb games previously this season, only one Loyola player reached double figures in scoring. Both times the Sycamores unleashed a barrage of three pointers, shooting 12 of 23 in the first game and 10 of 19 in the second meeting—the only two double-digit three-point goal performances the Ramblers allowed in conference play. And both times Loyola played without Milton Doyle. Hopefully, all those commonalities will come to an end in their third meeting on Friday night in St. Louis.

Without Milton Doyle, the Sycamores are simply a bad matchup for the Ramblers. Indiana State, with two big men that work well with each other in 6’9” Justin Gant and 6’10” Jake Kitchell, have the ability to limit the Ramblers’ inside production. Christian Thomas averaged only 5.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in the two games, and Loyola managed only 15 assists in the two games combined despite averaging 12.5 assists per game in all other league contests. Take out the two Indiana State three-point explosions against Loyola, and the Ramblers would have led the MVC in three point defense at .307; instead, they ranked fifth in the conference at .338. Loyola's conference opponents shot only 30 of 116 (.258) from behind the arc in games with Doyle, and 72 of 186 (.387) against the Ramblers without him. And without Doyle as a scoring, passing, penetrating, and three-point shooting threat, better opposing defenses were able to tighten up around the other Ramblers.

In Indiana State’s seven conference losses, Wichita State (twice), Northern Iowa (twice), and Missouri State (once) beat them through great defense, controlling tempo, and keeping them off the line. Drake and Evansville beat the Sycamores by simply outshooting them, something they found difficult to repeat in Terre Haute. The Sycamores perform best operating at a slightly higher tempo than most MVC teams prefer; they played at an average possession pace of 67.6 possessions per game in their wins (4-1 in games played at a pace of 70 or higher), and 65.3 possessions per game in their losses. Loyola averaged 59.3 possessions per game in their wins and 60.2 in their losses, losing all four games played at faster than 63 possessions per game.

Forty percent is a magic number in defeating Indiana State—the Sycamores are 9-2 in league games where they shoot 40% or better from behind the arc, and 2-5 in games where they don’t. When opponents shoot better than a modest 40% from the field, the Sycamores are 6-7, but predictably, ISU is 5-0 when holding the opposition below 40%.

ISU has a lot of different weapons, but no other player is more fundamental to their success than guard Devonte Brown, who is averaging 23 ppg in two games with Loyola. In ISU’s 11 conference wins, Brown shot 58 of 84 from the field (69%) and averaged 13.2 ppg, but shot only 20 of 60 (33.3%) scoring 10.3 ppg in their losses. At 6’2”, Brown has the second most total rebounds on the team, and leads all other Sycamores in defensive rebounds by a wide margin. He also tops all players in the MVC with 180 free throw attempts on the season, and has played the third most minutes of any player. Although he’s fifth in the league in assists, he is by far the league leader in turnovers (his next will make triple digits)-- one of the few weaknesses in his game.

Loyola also needs to keep the Sycamores off the free throw line, not only because Indiana State is the second-best free throw shooting team in conference play at 74.8%, but because the Ramblers are 3-8 when allowing opponents 12 or more free throw attempts. In LU’s two games against the Sycamores this season, ISU took 47 trips to the stripe-- accounting for 35 points in the two games won by a total margin of 25 points.

The return of Milton Doyle to the Ramblers’ lineup should help mitigate the mismatches Loyola dealt with in the first two games against Indiana State this season, and add confidence to a team that learned how to win without Doyle on the floor. But Indiana State is extremely well coached and possesses numerous weapons—big bodies inside, team rebounding, players who can get to the line, big men who can step out and shoot from distance, quick guards, ability to control tempo, specialists off the bench, and great three point shooting. Beating Indiana State usually requires great execution and mitigating more than just one of their weapons.

Arch Madness Info: http://archmadness.com/

Loyola game notes: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... 305aaa.pdf

Indiana State game notes: http://www.gosycamores.com/pdf9/3245007 ... M_ID=15200

TV: Comcast Sports Net/Fox Midwest

Vegas odds: Indiana State by 1.5

Nice preview....It will be interesting to see if PM does anything different. 5 days to prepare. I am guessing that Milton will play but how much? I dont think he was cleared for more than what he played so not sure how much more for Friday particularly knowing we have to go back to back to back. Maybe we will see a zone to keep ISU off the line....out of comfort zone on 3s and Brown out of the lane ,,,,as well as rest us a little.
Defensively what do the Trees play?

Game will be LIVE on FSN Midwest, which is available in the Chicago area on Directv if you get the SportsPack which costs $12 per month. This is the only way to see it live in the Chicago area.

You also may be able to see it on Fox Prime - if you have Comcast and one of the higher tier sports packages, you can find it there; I haven't checked yet, but will as the game gets closer.

I would assume ESPN3 as well, correct?

Game will not be on ESPN3 in the Chicago area market due to contractual agreements with FSN Midwest.

TWO, FOUR, SIX, EIGHT! WHO IS GONNA MITIGATE?

RAMBLERS! RAMBLERS!

GO RAMBLERS!

Q, R, S, T! END THE COMMONALITY!

RAMBLERS! RAMBLERS!

GO RAMBLERS!

Indiana State is going to be a tough game, but I truly believe that we have an excellent chance of winning it. We finished our season on a strong note, picking up two wins (one on the road), and got an emotional lift with Doyle being able to come back, contribute, and make an impact immediately. MOMENTUM is on the Ramblers' side. I went back and looked at the box scores and game summaries from our past two meetings, and while the scores aren't particularly close, when you look at turnovers, lack of assists, etc., it's almost as if you can see the hole where Doyle would have been in those two games. With Milt and a neutral court, I think these teams actually match up very evenly. More importantly, because Doyle was out for so long, a lot more guys were able to take on leadership roles (Peterson, CT) and with the exception of White (who I've been a little disappointed with) everyone seems to have gotten better through the experience.

It sucks about Rajala... He really looked like he was starting to develop and it would have been nice to have him give us a few valuable minutes down low for the next game. Hopefully he progresses even more in the off-season and we can actually expect things from him next year.

I looked over on the ISUb message board and they seem to think they will handle us and that Doyle won't be a factor (although one poster believes Doyle to be the best player in the Valley). If we win, i don't feel good about a UNI game, but for this one I am very optimistic.

According to KenPom.com, they play "mostly man".

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