UM Scouting report from a UM fan
Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:57 pm
Greetings Rambler fans. I just wanted to give a scouting report of Michigan basketball from a Michigan fan so you know what to expect and have ammo for discussions. Prior to the season the expectation was it was a 50/50 proposition that this team would make the NCAA tournament. The reason for this pessimistic prediction is that UM does not have the dead eye shooters that a Beilein team normally has. It was predicted that the offense was going to be inconsistent as when the rain of threes failed the offense would stall. This did not happen because this team is based on defense first which is a strange thing to behold from a Beilein team. This has to do with the addition of Luke Yaklich who you may recognize from ISU. Us UM fans are hoping his familiarity with your team will give us an edge. Everyone dwells on how to stop the Beilein offense. Yet three of the four tournament victories have been rock fights. So to beat UM, one has to look at the defense.
The strength of the defense is the perimeter. Xavier Simpson is not a typical UM PG in that he is defense first. He is a little undersized and can be shot over. However, that is the extent of his defensive deficiencies. He gets in the grill of PG’s, is difficult to drive against, gets through screens on pick & rolls, and thwarts post entry passes. One or two times a game he will just flat out take the ball straight up from opposing players. He is also a fabulous off the ball defender and helps off his man when appropriate. He can dominate a game without scoring a point. He has gone up against the best PG’s in the Big10 and shut them all down. The other perimeter players are almost as good. Charles Mathews has forward length but guard mobility to guard bigger burlier forwards but stick 3rd guards. The weakness of the defense is that the 4 and 5 positions when manned by those who get the most minutes are just passable at best. Neither Wagner nor Robinson are very good at post defense. UM will elect not to double and be content to allow easy two’s if either gets posted. DR is usually over matched and has been forced to foul because he is a guard playing the 4 position. The philosophy is stop the post from happening. The one bench player to be aware of is Jon Teske. Do not listen to Reggie Miller. He is a great low post defender. He plays Tim Duncan defense and unlike Wagner keeps his hands straight up. He is surprisingly mobile despite unable to jump. So he keeps his defensive position.
The philosophy of the UM defense like offense is money ball. They will close out hard to prevent a three even if someone gets a better look at a two. They are really good at the big man hedging high and running back to their spot. Wagner is not strong in the post. But he is really good at that kind of play. They are a great defensive rebounding team. Wagner is much improved over last year. All of the perimeter players are excellent defensive re-bounders. They are great at stopping dribble drives. They hope to force a team into lots of difficult mid range shots. Thus their defense is opposite of their offensive philosophy which is take lots treys and rim looks. The big key to this winning streak is flipping Duncan Robinson and Charles Mathews defensive responsibilities. Mathews is strong enough to defend even big fours. The problem is DR does not have DivI foot speed to stay on the perimeter. He was getting lit up so bad, it was hard to justify him staying on the court. Worse, it bugged him so much his offensive game suffered. DR will never be a good defender. However, his slowness of foot is less of an issue down low. Occasionally getting overpowered is worth it to Beilein to have an individual who on this winning streak is hitting 45% of his treys. DR is adequate enough and Mathews has not had issues guarding players on the perimeter. If anything he has thrived and the perimeter defense has tightened even more.
The offense is what Beilein has always run. It uses motion, picks & screens to free up perimeter players for threes and/or layups by big man on little guys or little guys driving by big guys. When everything is clicking you get something like what happened to A&M. Now A&M made it easy. But even when UM has gotten good shots this year, they have not always fallen. The outside shooting comes and goes. The best perimeter players are at the 4 and 5 position. UM will always try to exploit this match up by drawing traditional bigs away from the basket. Other than DR there is no sure fire Beilein style sniper. All of the perimeter players are capable of missing four straight threes as to hit one except maybe DR. The team shoots treys in the mid thirties. They will still take 25 a game because that is how the offense is supposed to run. Everything else they will try to take it to the rim. One of the big weaknesses of the team is the FT shooting. The two best slashers Mathews and Simpson are terrible FT shooters. The team hits about 65%. So if you have fouls to spare hack the right guy. The team puts a priority on stopping transition baskets on defense. This begins by not taking certain kinds of shots that put the defensive off balance is transition. This also includes the attitude towards offensive rebounding. One maybe two guys will try, but the team is content to run back on defense. Same thing for TO’s. The money ball attitude is don’t give up any easy points on defense by making bad decisions on offense.
So how to beat this team. Too many forums have been about stopping the Beilein offense. The basis of this team is defense first. Nice thing with defense first teams is defense never goes cold. If there is anyone to attack it is Wagner down low. He tends to drop his hands and pick up quick fouls. Duncan Robinson can also be isolated. He cannot guard on the perimeter. Considering that Loyola plays a lot of four guard offense DR might not get many minutes. Then UM has to decide whether to give Livers who is the nominal starter or Poole time. Both of these freshman will be exceptional players next year. But they have deficiencies to their game. Livers is limited offensively and Poole makes a lot of errors on defense. But this is something Loyola can dictate. According to Kempom this is a top 5 defense and it shows. There will be very few letdowns. All you can do is run your sets and try to be more efficient than the D. With a week put in wrinkles that are not in film and exploit them as long as you can.
On the offensive side I would play the percentages. UM perimeter game is hit or miss. A lot of times even with good looks they are misses. Make sure Wagner misses his first trey attempt and he will miss three more. The closest thing to a go to guy in the tournament has been Mathews. He is great when isolated on bigger players, but prone to turning the ball over against smaller defenders. And when in doubt foul, foul, and foul some more. There are games where UM can’t hit the broad side of the barn even from 15 feet. Because this offense has no high use player, a small ball team can cause a lot of problems. It is not a coincidence that both Houston and when FSU chose not to play any of their three ents that UM really struggled. Houston and FSU had swarms of athletic forwards that really throttled the UM offense. UM does not have an ISO guy who can take over a game. If you do not have big long perimeter players I would not recommend zone as UM’s best perimeter players are their tallest. If you are going to concede a trey attempt try to induce Mathews or Simpson as they are not as good as the others. Everyone else can be streaky hot or cold including Livers who I have seen go five for five from three in a game. Three times out of four a team has throttled this offense in this tournament. So likely to happen again.
As a Michigan fan as this team has advanced further I have become more relaxed because like the 97 football team it is so far beyond expectations. This was supposed to be an interlude where the foundation was set for next year. The thought was Livers would figure out offense, Poole defense, and some truly outstanding shooters would come in at the wings to give Beilein a good run. But to Beilein’s credit this old dog is willing to change based on the changing face of college basketball. We are seeing smaller teams and a lot of either four guard sets or swarms of mid sized forwards. This takes away the inherit advantage of a shooter or finisher at the stretch four. It is not coincidence that UM cleaned not only A&M’s clock, but MSU & Purdue, yet struggled against Montana State. The three former teams represent probably 6-8 NBA capable players including three lottery picks. This is occurring over and over in this tournament where as I write this only Duke remains and plays with the classic dominant front line. It is refreshing that in an age where shady programs are known to bribe one and done phenoms that a team like Loyola has a seat in the final four.
The strength of the defense is the perimeter. Xavier Simpson is not a typical UM PG in that he is defense first. He is a little undersized and can be shot over. However, that is the extent of his defensive deficiencies. He gets in the grill of PG’s, is difficult to drive against, gets through screens on pick & rolls, and thwarts post entry passes. One or two times a game he will just flat out take the ball straight up from opposing players. He is also a fabulous off the ball defender and helps off his man when appropriate. He can dominate a game without scoring a point. He has gone up against the best PG’s in the Big10 and shut them all down. The other perimeter players are almost as good. Charles Mathews has forward length but guard mobility to guard bigger burlier forwards but stick 3rd guards. The weakness of the defense is that the 4 and 5 positions when manned by those who get the most minutes are just passable at best. Neither Wagner nor Robinson are very good at post defense. UM will elect not to double and be content to allow easy two’s if either gets posted. DR is usually over matched and has been forced to foul because he is a guard playing the 4 position. The philosophy is stop the post from happening. The one bench player to be aware of is Jon Teske. Do not listen to Reggie Miller. He is a great low post defender. He plays Tim Duncan defense and unlike Wagner keeps his hands straight up. He is surprisingly mobile despite unable to jump. So he keeps his defensive position.
The philosophy of the UM defense like offense is money ball. They will close out hard to prevent a three even if someone gets a better look at a two. They are really good at the big man hedging high and running back to their spot. Wagner is not strong in the post. But he is really good at that kind of play. They are a great defensive rebounding team. Wagner is much improved over last year. All of the perimeter players are excellent defensive re-bounders. They are great at stopping dribble drives. They hope to force a team into lots of difficult mid range shots. Thus their defense is opposite of their offensive philosophy which is take lots treys and rim looks. The big key to this winning streak is flipping Duncan Robinson and Charles Mathews defensive responsibilities. Mathews is strong enough to defend even big fours. The problem is DR does not have DivI foot speed to stay on the perimeter. He was getting lit up so bad, it was hard to justify him staying on the court. Worse, it bugged him so much his offensive game suffered. DR will never be a good defender. However, his slowness of foot is less of an issue down low. Occasionally getting overpowered is worth it to Beilein to have an individual who on this winning streak is hitting 45% of his treys. DR is adequate enough and Mathews has not had issues guarding players on the perimeter. If anything he has thrived and the perimeter defense has tightened even more.
The offense is what Beilein has always run. It uses motion, picks & screens to free up perimeter players for threes and/or layups by big man on little guys or little guys driving by big guys. When everything is clicking you get something like what happened to A&M. Now A&M made it easy. But even when UM has gotten good shots this year, they have not always fallen. The outside shooting comes and goes. The best perimeter players are at the 4 and 5 position. UM will always try to exploit this match up by drawing traditional bigs away from the basket. Other than DR there is no sure fire Beilein style sniper. All of the perimeter players are capable of missing four straight threes as to hit one except maybe DR. The team shoots treys in the mid thirties. They will still take 25 a game because that is how the offense is supposed to run. Everything else they will try to take it to the rim. One of the big weaknesses of the team is the FT shooting. The two best slashers Mathews and Simpson are terrible FT shooters. The team hits about 65%. So if you have fouls to spare hack the right guy. The team puts a priority on stopping transition baskets on defense. This begins by not taking certain kinds of shots that put the defensive off balance is transition. This also includes the attitude towards offensive rebounding. One maybe two guys will try, but the team is content to run back on defense. Same thing for TO’s. The money ball attitude is don’t give up any easy points on defense by making bad decisions on offense.
So how to beat this team. Too many forums have been about stopping the Beilein offense. The basis of this team is defense first. Nice thing with defense first teams is defense never goes cold. If there is anyone to attack it is Wagner down low. He tends to drop his hands and pick up quick fouls. Duncan Robinson can also be isolated. He cannot guard on the perimeter. Considering that Loyola plays a lot of four guard offense DR might not get many minutes. Then UM has to decide whether to give Livers who is the nominal starter or Poole time. Both of these freshman will be exceptional players next year. But they have deficiencies to their game. Livers is limited offensively and Poole makes a lot of errors on defense. But this is something Loyola can dictate. According to Kempom this is a top 5 defense and it shows. There will be very few letdowns. All you can do is run your sets and try to be more efficient than the D. With a week put in wrinkles that are not in film and exploit them as long as you can.
On the offensive side I would play the percentages. UM perimeter game is hit or miss. A lot of times even with good looks they are misses. Make sure Wagner misses his first trey attempt and he will miss three more. The closest thing to a go to guy in the tournament has been Mathews. He is great when isolated on bigger players, but prone to turning the ball over against smaller defenders. And when in doubt foul, foul, and foul some more. There are games where UM can’t hit the broad side of the barn even from 15 feet. Because this offense has no high use player, a small ball team can cause a lot of problems. It is not a coincidence that both Houston and when FSU chose not to play any of their three ents that UM really struggled. Houston and FSU had swarms of athletic forwards that really throttled the UM offense. UM does not have an ISO guy who can take over a game. If you do not have big long perimeter players I would not recommend zone as UM’s best perimeter players are their tallest. If you are going to concede a trey attempt try to induce Mathews or Simpson as they are not as good as the others. Everyone else can be streaky hot or cold including Livers who I have seen go five for five from three in a game. Three times out of four a team has throttled this offense in this tournament. So likely to happen again.
As a Michigan fan as this team has advanced further I have become more relaxed because like the 97 football team it is so far beyond expectations. This was supposed to be an interlude where the foundation was set for next year. The thought was Livers would figure out offense, Poole defense, and some truly outstanding shooters would come in at the wings to give Beilein a good run. But to Beilein’s credit this old dog is willing to change based on the changing face of college basketball. We are seeing smaller teams and a lot of either four guard sets or swarms of mid sized forwards. This takes away the inherit advantage of a shooter or finisher at the stretch four. It is not coincidence that UM cleaned not only A&M’s clock, but MSU & Purdue, yet struggled against Montana State. The three former teams represent probably 6-8 NBA capable players including three lottery picks. This is occurring over and over in this tournament where as I write this only Duke remains and plays with the classic dominant front line. It is refreshing that in an age where shady programs are known to bribe one and done phenoms that a team like Loyola has a seat in the final four.