Great post, Toledo, and all true. I'd only add that the one blemish on our record in the last 19 games, the 1-point OT loss to a Q1 team, was the second game in a back to back on the road.
Many of these bracket predictions are made from past year patterns, when scheduling was easier for mid majors (many MTEs, like ours were cancelled) and there were more games played in the season. Maybe the fact that an Athletics VP from Bradley, the AD from Toledo, and the Commissioner of the Mountain West Conference are on the Selection Committee will help us get some advocacy in the room.
Bart Torvik's tournament seeding predictor has us as the top 9 seed (33rd in his simulator) but his odds for Loyola to make the Round of 32, the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight are 25th, 28th, and 27th. He gives us a 4.9% chance of making the Final Four, which ranks 26th best odds among teams right now. All of those odds are consistent with a 7 seed, not a 9. The most "over-seeded" teams are Oregon, Clemson, Oklahoma, Rutgers, and LSU, all of which are in the 6 to 8 seeding range but have worse odds to advance than Loyola based on performance metrics and seeding range. In short, performance models say we should be a 7 seed at least, even when we're slotted as a 9.
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