JCT wrote:
Wow, Brot. I wish I could be as optimistic.
I don't know if we win this game with a healthy Doyle, but it would probably be closer. I'm also concerned about four consecutive bad or sub-par games by Peterson. His plus/minus in this game was -21 (meaning the other team outscored us by 21 points while he was on the court). He had eight points, yes, but it took him 10 fg attempts and 6 ft attempts to get it. Going into the Drake game, Peterson was 28 of 30 on free throw attempts (93.3%), 53.4% on field goals, and 55% on threes. Since then, he's 2 of 7 on free throws (28.6%), 33.3% on field goals, and 14.7% on threes. There's also the fact that Drake's 6'2" senior guard Gary Ricks (24 points on 7 threes), SIU's 6'2" junior guard Anthony Beane (20 points on 6 of 7 fgs), and ISUb's 6'2" junior guard Devonte Brown (24 points on 7 threes) have lit us up in three of the past four games-- the only three times this year that an opposing player has scored 20 or more against us, and all of it done by a player that would naturally be a defensive responsibility of Peterson (though not his alone). It's bad enough not having a healthy Doyle, but I'd argue that no Doyle and an unhealthy Peterson is too much for us to overcome no matter the opposition.
We've got to play smart with Doyle's return. We've already basically conceded two winnable games in order to get Doyle back and healthy, why risk re-injury in the biggest longshot of the year (on the road at #14 Wichita State, where they've won 24 straight and haven't lost a home game since February 2013), against the same team we were playing when the injury happened? We've committed to the plan of getting Doyle healthy through rest, and maybe sacrificed an important home win to do it. Let's not also risk throwing away the sacrifice on a 20-1 longshot. Hell, I'd even be thinking about also resting Peterson against WSU. It's not like the beating WSU on their own court is going to erase the losses to Evansville and Indiana State. It would only be a Sportscenter blurb, one game in the standings, and back into the 80s on RPI.
We're trying to avoid Thursday and get to postseason, and the losses to Evansville and Indiana State not only took us out of NIT contention, it made avoiding Thursday and getting an 8-10 conference finish (probably the minimum for a C-tournament bid) much more improbable. If rest is the way to get Doyle back healthy (a proposition we've invested in), the risk/reward of playing competitively/beating WSU isn't worth the risk of being back at square one again with a string of winnable/must win games coming up.
Thanks for the tiebreaker update.
Great stats about the defense. It reminds me of two years ago when guards from GB, Youngstown, Cleveland, etc. regularly went off against us for season highs.
I don't believe in conceding games, and I don't think that's what we have done. I think we took our best shot to win, which was to play without an injured Doyle. If he is healthy, then there is no risk bringing him back at WSU. I wouldn't play him if there is a question, but if he's ready to go you have to let him go. If players are injured, you sit them. It's not like the Spurs resting healthy players. I think that is a joke.
A win at WSU (huge longshot) would be more than a highlight. It could be the difference between 8 and 9 wins. Or the difference between me spending Thursday night at the casino making up for Vegas and watching us play Drake for the third time.