Wow-- there's a ton of topics here...
As to the run-and-gun argument, which I've been thinking about since the beginning of last season.... It's really hard to make the jump from the mid-mid-major levels to the higher and high majors. Look at Butler, Creighton, Xavier, George Mason, VCU, Wichita State, and Davidson as examples. Here's how it happens:
1. The mid-majors and low-mid-majors develop offensive and defensive systems, philosophies, strict discipline, and coaching tactics that begin to defeat most mid-major and some high major teams. 2. The lower majors (think Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, Florida Gulf Coast, etc.) go on a sustained run to get better athletes willing to work in the system to become mid-majors. 3. The mid-majors (Butler, Xavier, Loyola, George Mason, Davidson, VCU, etc.) get better athletes (think Gordon Heyward, David West, Steph Curry, etc.) who get them to a level where they can recruit 3-star athletes at almost every position. 4. At the Big East, American Athletic, West Coast, and A-10 level, athleticism and recruiting should be able to move programs past "Drilling and Discipline" concentration just to show that a program is consequential.... to the "We actually have a chance to go deep in tournaments" level with top athletes that are in the neighborhood of the Blue Blood programs. 5. The not-quite-major conference programs (West Coast, American, A-10, Mountain West) are in an awkward position where developing athletes, physical strength, and discrete skills are more important than developing discipline, drilling plays, and learning how to keep in front of offensive players. It's assumed-- somewhat-- that most players at that 3-star level know how to do the latter group, either intellectually, intuitively or physically. We know that's not always the case.
For the reasons listed above, I consider the move to the A-10 a difficult and highly challenging one (more so than most, evidently), and one that's worthwhile making, particularly because of the changes in the money and structure and rules of college basketball. We're at the point where you can ask yourself what a lot of college administrators ask: Do we want to have college sports as an "amenity"-- a "check a box" option for basic student life and scholarships for some well-performing students likely to stick around if they're on the Cross Country or women's volleyball teams.... OR.... Do we want to pursue college athletics with the goal of national championships, high-level competition, getting our college name in there, and providing the maximum level experience for college athletes?
As for Hot Seat, No..... Coach Valentine is NOT in the hot seat right now. If the Ramblers crash and burn in A-10 play (6 or fewer conference wins IMO would be crash and burn), some red flags will go up. Any coach is going to get four years to prove themselves barring a scandal, and Loyola's athletic program does not have buyout money lying around in giant piles. Thus far Valentine has proven a pretty good recruiter and savvy master of the portal, and that works in his favor. Where we are (and where Valentine is now) in KenPom and the A-10 is better than where Rhode Island is with former Dayton and Indiana coach Archie Miller. We're better off than where La Salle is with former Temple and Penn coach Fran Dunphy (who took his teams to 14 trips to the NCAA Tournament). We're better off than former SEC and Final Four coach Frank Martin is at UMass.
Loyola is going to give Valentine time to grow into the role like they did with Porter Moser. We are currently 135 in KenPom. Moser had one season better than 135 in his first five years.... 132 in 2015, but only by running the table in the CBI. Former Loyola assistant Bryan Mullins has finished 178, 192, 125, and 139 in his four completed years as Head Coach at SIU, even after being handed a program that hadn't finished below 150 for the previous four years with Barry Hinson.
If you are impatient with new coaches, go get season tickets to DePaul.... they've had four coaches since 2006 and two seasons above .500.
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