I gave myself Sunday to enjoy the win, be positive on the board and reminisce about the incredible four year run Loyola is on.

Now down to business. After our 27 point blowout in game 1 @Drake, our offense has really hit a wall. Thought it'd be good to centralize discussions on the offense in one thread. I have a few observations. I am a kenpom subscriber but certainly not an analytic savant. The below thoughts are mostly just from watching the game.

1. "Tightening" of the rotation. Welch was a really key contributor in the first half of the season. Showed he could hit from deep and had some nifty moves downlow. His defense was not bad, but he was sometimes exposed trying to defend the other team's big man. His minutes and contributions have seemingly dropped off. Similar to Hebb who did not play at all (I don't think) in the SIU series. He provided a bit of a spark plug in some games with active defense and the ability to drive to the hoop. Seems like we are now set in a 7 man rotation with the starting 5 plus Quise/Hall...with sparing minutes for Welch, Kaifes and Hall.

2. Backdoor cuts. Our offense had a ton of pretty cuts / motions coupled with really nifty passing (including from Krut, of course) that lead to easy layups. It seems opposing teams have picked up on that and are not overselling a big, cutting off any passing lanes before they exist.

3. Hall/Uguak/Welch. Each of these three guys have shown the ability to step up for a double digit game on any given night. After Hall as put into a sub role, he responded super well and kind of carved out a new roll as a post-up guy. He is strong, quick and athletic--great for exposing mismatches. However, last few games, he seems to have gotten away from really trying to back guys down. His 3 point shot is so off this year, unfortunately, that I think he really needs to go back to keying in downlow. Similarly, Uguak is a guy who can really expose mismatches--length and quickness very few have. He really looked good in game 1 vs Drake as they tried to guard him with Sturtz. Seems like the last few games, he has regressed a bit as neither his 3 point shot is falling nor is he able to expose defenders. Welch, already talked about his decrease in minutes. His 3 point shot from the top of the arc seemed automatic at the beginning of the year--he has gone cold from there.

4. Drive, drive, drive. We have a few guys who have shown they can beat defenders off the dribble and consistently get to the hoop (Kennedy, Norris, Hebb). Only one of those guys (Kennedy) has really shown the ability to finish once down there. With the 3 point ball not falling, I think we need to try driving more--Kennedy to finish or dish to Krut and Norris to pull up for a mid-range jumper (where he has been deadly) or find Krut.

5. The 3 ball. Obviously, the biggest issue, and the most troubling / inexplicable, has been the complete demise of our 3 point shooting. We have multiple guys on the roster who should be comfortable 36+% shooters (Norris, Williamson, Clemons, Kaifes, Kennedy). And we looked the part leading up to the last 4 games. But then it just fell off a cliff (other than Norris and to a lesser extent, Clemons). With a big guy as talented as Krut, when our 3's are falling, we are near impossible to defend. Feed him, and he will either beat your defender 1v1 OR you can try to crash him and he will inevitably find the open guy leading you to chase the ball on the perimeter until we have an open 3. But when the 3's aren't falling, you just need to crash on Krut as you do not need to worry about getting killed from deep. Our advantage on offense disappears.

Interested to hear thoughts from others. These are obviously some "ramblings" of someone who has yelled at the TV out of pure frustration the last four games. Our defense can keep us in a battle with just about any team, and even win Q4 type games vs Valpo and SIU, but if the offense isn't there, our March will be short-lived. I trust Porter and the guys to figure it out. First move should be to stick with what worked early on--then, if the 3's STILL aren't falling, we need some type of backup plan. I think driving with Norris/Kennedy and feeding Krut or cutters is the best we can do.

Good post. I'm trying not to overreact to the grind, because I remember that in 2018, our offense really found some life in the tournament after Valley play. Like the Nevada game when we carved them up for tons of layups. I think a lot of it just has to do with Valley teams knowing each other so well. Things start to look smoother when you play someone new.

The three point shooting is a little bit mysterious. Maybe just bad luck.

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I agree with this article that says shooting slumps are ALL MENTAL:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/high- ... ing-slump/

I know Porter said all the right things after our first poor shooting game against SIU (Paraphrasing:"We are good 3 point shooters and we will continue put up 3s and they will start to fall"), but it seems to me from his history of having a quick hook when a player's first shot or two doesn't fall that he puts undue mental pressure on players (particularly subs like Kaifes and Hall) to connect right out of the gate or sit the rest of the game.

I don't know what the cure is but hitting a couple of early 3s would definitely help to take the pressure off.

Every coach wants his top 6 or 7 in for heavy minutes. But the quick hook always seems detrimental to bench development. Good example is Bradley's win over Drake. Due to injury, suspension, and illness, Wardle was down to 6 scholarship players. He lost his "hook". Hanna, Thomas, and Kent had trouble getting minutes all year. Against Drake they had to stay on the floor and all 3 went for double figures. Kent 5 out of 8 on 3's. Just wish there were more minutes for Hall, Cooper, and Welch.

And after seeing him in action this weekend (plus some time during early season blowouts), I wish we had seen more Hutson this season. But understand he has a once-in-a-generation talent in front of him! Not to go off track here, but will be interesting to see what happens next season with he and Big Frank (assuming Krut doesn't come back).

Good shooters need confidence, prefer their spot, like to shoot in a rhythm, need their legs and consistent,fundamental technique..
I think a variety of things have happened...psychological and physical. I think some are universal and some specific. Psychologically our last games have been high consequence as we tried to overcome Drake for 1st. The more you miss..the more you wonder...the more you wonder the more you wander..(thought Coach Moser did a good job of continuing to send a message that he had confidence). Physically we play the longest defensive possessions in the Valley and we play hard defense, the accumulation of 9 back to back series I think are hard. That each back to back with little or no time for the muscles to recover is each a little trauma and has had a cumulative effect. We win games with defense you get curious if with the increased importance of a game more of practice time is spent on defense and not offensive shooting drills. Specifically the last 5 games everyone has put a ton of pressure on Krut...his turnovers have been up but also it has been really hard to get release passes to guys in their rhythm and in their spots. Teams have been doubling from the blind side..and keeping a man on each of the shooters..really making them scramble to get open for a Krut pass as well as being able to guard the cutters...The open man is behind Krut in the opposite corner whenever Krut got the ball in the low post. Teams have also backed off some guys almost daring them to shoot. I think this is the case with Tate Hall and that is its own psychological issue.
So I think we have good shooters but conditions have not been ideal...like driving in the snow...just arent making good time....Hope we get our legs back, our confidence back. and come up with an offensive scheme that gets our kids better looks where they can shoot in rhythm.

Curious how people would rank our 3 point shooters .? from best to worst.

Great post! Since you mentioned Welch, here's my take. I am more worried about our defensive than our offense. Crazy, right?
Our Offense will bounce back some, but Welch and Aher have definitely fallen into a defensive slump. Welch really struggled and Aher's minutes are down and Porter seems to pull him more based on D. When Krut is out can we really depend on Hutson? I don't think so yet. At times, Aher and Krut have been our other solid defenders. If we continue to struggle on offense, we need all hands on deck defensively. I do think Norris has improved defensively (certainly offensively) though not at that elite level yet. As a team our D continues to be outstanding, but we need Welch and Aher to step it up in StL.

Great post. I, as well as others on the board I think, were hopeful that the long break b/w Valpo and SIU would allow our guys time to heal, stretch out those muscles, recover. That is why the SIU series was especially concerning for me.

In terms of ranking 3 point shooters....it's tough as some are better in certain spots (Lucas from the corner, Welch from top, etc.) and some are better in motion, etc. But if I had to go straight up--need a three, who do you go with, I'd go:

1. Norris
2. Clemons
3. Kaifes
4. Williamson
5. Kennedy (he is 25.9% from 3 this year!?! how did that happen?)
6. Uguak
7. Welch
8. Hall

He's got a slow release on catch and shoots and kind of a flat arc. He really struggled with it early as a freshman before getting hot the last ten or so games of the regular season as a freshman. That said, in my opinion he's a way better shooter pulling up off the dribble, his ball tends to get more rotation when he does (think his pull ups against Bradley and the late shot against SIU).

Yeah, I think I have a memory of his last 10 games from last year when he seemed automatic from deep.