Saturday, February 29, 2020 1:00 p.m.
Carver Arena, Peoria, Ill.


Last year, the final game of the regular season between Bradley and Loyola was won by the Ramblers, 81-68. That blowout win last year, which gave Loyola a share of the conference regular season title and #1 seed by virtue of a Loyola season sweep over Drake, by no means characterized the hard-fought and consequential games Loyola and Bradley have played over the past three seasons.

Back in 2018, a 69-67 loss at Bradley was Loyola's only blemish in 22 games from Jan. 7 to the NCAA Tournament National Semifinal Game against Michigan. The Ramblers dispatched Bradley in the conference semifinal that year by a 62-54 score. Last year, Loyola lost a 61-54 decision at Carver before rallying for that regular-season ending blowout win at Gentile. But exactly one week later, the Braves manhandled the Ramblers in a 53-51 slugfest in St. Louis to knock #1 seed Loyola out of the conference tourney. The Ramblers haven't lost to Bradley at home since a one-point loss in January 2016. Loyola hasn't won in Peoria since January 2017.

Last time out, Brian Wardle's crew needed overtime to knock off their I-74 rivals Illinois State in Normal, 74-71. A loss at ISU might have knocked Bradley down as low as 5th in the mid-level morass in the MVC. But the Gargoyles held on to get their 11th league win, their most league wins since 2005-06-- the season Bradley lost to both Loyola and Butler, but made it to the NCAA Sweet 16.

The Bradley team Loyola will face on Saturday is somewhat different from the team they saw Feb. 1, when the Ramblers won at Gentile, 62-51. The Braves have 6'7" senior forward Elijah Childs back from his hand injury that kept him out of 10 games this season. Childs adds a versatile, athletic presence in the Bradley frontcourt, and has the basketball IQ and experience to do the little things to win games. Childs averages 14.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Childs is a third player on the Braves who averages more than a block per game, and his interior presence along with either 6'11" Koch Bar or 7'1" Ari Boya.

The rest of Bradley's starting lineup are familiar faces: 5'10" senior Darrell Brown and 6'6" senior Nate Kennell have been thorns in the sides of most of the MVC for four seasons. Brown is the go-to shooter and floor leader for the Braves, averaging 14.7 points, 4.46 assists, and 2.6 rebounds. Brown only shoots 34.1% from the field and 31.2% from behind the line, but he always seems to take the big shot in crunch time (and hits on a lot of them). Also, Brown is second in the conference with 160 trips to the free throw line, thanks to a head jerk (not a flop, simply a head jerk) that simulates hard contact as he drives to the basket. This move is highly successful at Carver Arena, where fans have never seen an actual foul committed by Bradley player. Kinnell is the player who always seems to torch Loyola with his outside shooting-- he's averaging 12.6 points per game, and connects on 43.8% of his shots behind the arc. Juco transfer Danya Kingsby rounds out the starting guards and averages 7.7 points per game.

In the front court, there's much-improved Koch Bar, the 6'11" senior center, and 6'6" sophomore forward Ja'shon Henry. Bar is averaging 6.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, and passing much better in traffic than he ever has before. Henry promises to be a first or second-team all conference player by the time he's a senior, and currently averages 9.8 points per game with really good finishing ability inside. Henry can also shoot open threes at 33% and collects 6.2 rebounds per game.

A Loyola win would give the Ramblers a better conference record than last season, and create the potential for a share of the regular season title. A Saturday night game with UNI at Drake will determine whether that long shot contingency comes to pass.

A Loyola loss to Bradley would create a tie in the standings, and with the first tiebreaker deadlocked (each team with a 1-1 head-to-head record), the second tiebreaker (the NCAA's Net Rankings) would decide which of the two teams gets the valuable and prestigious 2 seed at Arch Madness. No one really knows the EXACT formula for the NCAA NET, but it's suspected that wins by 10 or more points carry more weight. As of today, Loyola leads Bradley 98 to 107 in the NET rankings.

Bradley is 15-1 at home this season-- their only loss came against Northern Iowa, 86-71, but Bradley was forced to overtime in their last home game against Missouri State. Loyola is 4-6 on the road this season, 3-5 in conference.


Loyola game notes: https://loyolaramblers.com/documents/20 ... _29_20.pdf

Bradley game notes: Pending

TV/Streaming video: https://www.cbssports.com/cbs-sports-network/

Radio/Streaming audio: https://loyolaramblers.com/watch/?Live=32&type=Live

Live stats: https://bradleybraves.com/sidearmstats/mbball/summary

Vegas odds: Bradley by 3

Great review....thanks for these all year....they have helped set the table for all the games........ This one will be a tough one to win....I think this is one of those games that depends on how well Krut can do....Bradley leads the league in blocks....have a veteran team.....hoping that senior day gets em over amped and we bug the heck out of em on defense....I am thinking Williamson goes on Childs, Ugauk on Kennel and Clemmons on Brown....I am also hoping that Bradley looses their cool at some point which they can do. Last year in the semi-final game the refs let both teams play and it cost us as we just never got to the line....It will be interesting to see how the game called and the effect it has.....I am taking the over on Waddel getting a T and Poser losing his jacket in the first half

Waddel and Poser?
Sounds like the title for a tv sitcom about two female buddies: A ditzy blonde fashion model and her fat, but funny, friend.

Jenny McCarthy as Penny Poser
Melissa McCarthy as Wendy Waddel
Natetheskate as Murray Malaprop, their eccentric neighbor.

I predict a low scoring game with one of those lengthy Rambler scoring droughts Sister Jean so laments. Scoring will be evenly distributed .
The game will be close throughout, with no team ever having a lead bigger than two points. In other words, forty (nominal) minutes of a one possession game.
The Ramblers will do just well enough to secure the second seed, but unfortunately the game will enter the ledger as a Rambler loss.

Prediction:
Bradley 2
Loyola 0

I think our size and length on defense really bothered Bradley in the first game. I think they had a lot of problems getting the ball inside. Especially with us having the luxury of being able to put Hall and Aher on their guards at times. Bradley has size inside, but there guards are relatively small. Moreso than most of the other conference teams. Which, imho, leads to the foul and free throw disparity a lot of their fans seem to whine about.

Defense travels better than any other part of the game, so it’ll be interesting to see if our matchups create similar problems still with Childs back.

Is there any video of the infamous Darrell Brown "head jerk/not a flop" technique?
As I have aged I find I can no longer rely on my raw physical talent and athleticism to score, but need be craftier.
Would love to incorporate Brown's move into my arsenal of offensive weapons.

Swella.... if you watch the LU game here from Feb 1, he did it while going around a Kutwig screen in the first half.

My question is, is there a legitimate concern going into this game that we could stay in second place and have to take the 3 seed in the MVC tournament as a result of what happens in this game. Are we playing for more than a win or a loss against Bradley?  

It looks to me like the current NET rankings are: 
Loyola                98
Bradley               109 

It’s my understanding that for tiebreakers, first they go to head-to-head matchups, and if it’s still a tie, the NET rankings are a tiebreaker to determine MVC tournament seeding.  So, is it a realistic possibility that we could lose to Bradley, and have a worse NET ranking to them as a result?  If so, what, if anything, do we need to do to mitigate any damages against Bradley in a loss that would keep us with a better NET ranking than them at the end of the season?  While I don’t understand the intricacies of how a NET ranking is calculated per game, it’s my understanding that “efficiency” is the second most important factor (what margin you beat a team by), which is capped at 10 points. I would assume your NET moves more or less if you win/lose by 10 points or less. So my question is, is 11 spots (98 and 109) an insurmountable gap for Bradley to overtake us in the NET rankings in one game, or is this something that we should be concerned over? (Setting aside the idea for fitting and having a score of 2-0, haha)

Obviously there is a huge difference in having the second seed or the third seed for Arch Madness. What if  there is a situation, say, where we are down by 7 with 1:30 left and we need to foul and put them to the line to have a chance to come back?  Could it possibly benefit us for seeding not to risk playing for the win and fouling, and instead elect not to foul and lock down on defense to mitigate the score and try to keep it within 5 or 4 when the buzzer sounds?  Is there even a huge difference in NET rankings if we lose by 5 or 10?  Is it something that Porter needs to be seriously mindful of in a late game situation to keep the 2 seed if we are going to lose the game?

Those are fair questions...the problem is, what inputs go into the NET are not publicized by the NCAA so it is all kind of a guessing game. I think we are far enough ahead that we should be OK, especially given it is a road game, but who knows...

I kind of figured it was impossible to calculate. I ding it hard to believe, even if we lose that we would drop five spots and they would go up 7.

Does anyone know how many spots we went up when we beat UNI?