Saturday, November 16, 2019 1:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, IL

The St. Joseph University Hawks head to Chicago after an impressive win over UConn Tuesday night in Storrs, 96-87. St. Joe's, under Billy Lange-- their first new head coach since 1995-- has probably one of the country's top non-con schedules this season with sure dates against top mid-majors like Bradley, Old Dominion, Temple, and Loyola. They also face Florida, Villanova, UConn, and either Miami or Missouri State.

While St. Joe's was notching an impressive road win on Tuesday night, Loyola served up probably its worst home loss since the 1990s. The Ramblers shot 19% from three point territory while committing 14 more turnovers to bring their season averages to 23.5% (327th among Division I teams) on threes and 14.6 per game on turnovers. Only three Ramblers have more assists than turnovers, and four separate players are averaging more than 2.0 turnovers per game.

Loyola was picked to finish fourth in the MVC, but the impact of injuries (particularly to three point sharpshooter Cooper Kaifes) have been significant. The Ramblers are somewhat effectively holding down opposing teams' shooting percentages to reasonable levels, but are giving away many more possessions and shot attempts in their two losses. Opponents have 27% more free throw attempts than LU, and are hitting their freebies at a higher clip. Add it all up, and it's no wonder Loyola is 1-2.

Even though the Hawks were predicted for the near bottom of the A-10 (picked to finish 13 among the 14 league teams), St. Joes has already knocked off Bradley and UConn in the non-con. Coach Lange is starting two big 6'5" guards to go along with three 6'8" forwards, and the tempo is faster than any St. Joe's fan from the past two generations can imagine.

The two 6'5" starting guards are junior Ryan Daly (21.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists) and freshman Cameron Brown (8.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists). A trio of forwards-- 6'8" sophomore Miles Douglas, 6'8" junior Lorenzo Edwards, and 6'8" junior Taylor Funk-- fill out the starting roles. Edwards, a Lake Forest High School product, leads the team in rebounds with 7.0 per game to go with his 13.3 points. Douglas and Edwards are both shooting 44% from three point territory.

Six-three freshman guard Rahmir Moore has been fantastic coming in off the bench; he averages 13.7 points per game on 71.4% shooting from the field-- yes, that's right, he's shooting over 70% from the field so far. Moore also gets to the free throw line with ferocity, averaging nine free throw shots per game while playing about 30 minutes off the bench.

The Ramblers will need to keep Moore off the line, absolutely lock down and control the defensive boards, and keep the tempo at a pace that favors Loyola. St. Joe's new-look offense is going to be a whole lot different from last year's 45-42 game between these two teams, where neither squad shot better than 39.4% and the halftime score was 20-16.


Loyola game notes: https://loyolaramblers.com/news/2019/11 ... eph-s.aspx

St. Joseph's game notes: https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf9/5490 ... 1573776450

TV/Streaming video: ESPN3 https://www.espn.com/watch?id=c54ecf61- ... e937c88ba9

Internet audio feed: https://loyolaramblers.com/watch/?Live=5&type=Live

Live stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=280000

Vegas odds: Loyola by 7.5

This will be a "learning experience" for the team. I'll be there at Gentile and I'm hopeful but after the performances against Indy and Coppin, I just hope it's not too soul crushing. Not trying to by hyperbolic, but I was in Gentile for the first MVC home opener against Missouri State and that was a cold and snowy crappy evening (~100 people there, not like now) and the team wasn't good but was on the upswing (they won which was a great start). After 2018 Final Four season I hoped we turned a corner... I'm just hoping we don't slide too far back. Yes I know we have a lot of young guys and we lost most of the FF veterans but this happens to all college teams and we just need to coach up and work with the team we have. Still a fan and season ticket holder and I don't see that stopping anytime soon.

I've now broken out of the Wednesday malaise and firmly believe we will win tomorrow.

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Just how "firm" are you (belief-wise)? If full on robot chubby you should put some dough on the Ramblers. They are 7.5 point dogs in Vegas.

Clearly, you're not a gambler. We are 7.5 point favorites.

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This is why I don't I do research; when I try I get it wrong. All those plus/minus signs got me confused.

On edit: Why are we 7.5 point favorites?

That's surprising to me. I'd have put it at 2.5 or so. It's already down to 7, and I suspect it will fall further.

Seriously? 7.5 point favorites? That's hard to believe

Btw, NIU just beat Coppin State 81-69

Lines for this type of game are slow to react. They use algorithms that rely to a large degree on previous season's data until there is a large enough sample from the current year. Kenpom has us by 8.

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Tempted to put a hefty chunk of change on St Joe's to cover the 7 point spread. They have beaten Bradley and just blew out UCONN. We got blown out by Furman and lost to one of the worst D1 teams. I am not sure how we beat them by more than 7 points...