Since the preview mags are starting to come out, the schedule appears to be final, and other MVC message boards are starting to pontificate, maybe it's time to start a prediction thread here. I'll go out of a limb and get things started, with the caveat that I could change my mind if anyone makes a really persuasive argument.

Here's how I see the league finishing this year:

WSU 15 3
ISUb 14 4
UNI 12 6
Brad 10 8
Mo St. 8 10
E'ville 7 11
Loyola 7 11
ISUr 6 12
Drake 6 12
SIU 5 13

I think Loyola earns a 7-11 record by virtue of a 5-4 record at home and a 2-7 record on the road.

Breaking it down, I think it's reasonable to expect that we beat SIU, Drake, ISU, Evansville, and Missouri State at home. Bradley is an outside shot at home, and although it's not likely, we might surprise UNI if they're having a particularly bad night. The road is going to be another story... this is a tough league, and we won't be playing any cupcakes in front of empty gyms like we sometimes did in the HL. I think we've got a good chance on the road against Drake and SIU. ISUr is another good possibility for a road win if we fall short at SIU or Drake, and recently we've played well at Bradley.

More so than has been traditional in the HL, MVC teams stage improbable upsets that seemingly make no sense. Last year, Illinois State beat Creighton in Omaha; Southern Illinois beat Wichita State in Carbondale; Indiana State beat Wichita State on the road; Drake won at Indiana State. But that's one of the reasons I like our chances in this league.

I'm predicting Loyola for a tie for 6th place, but a 7th seed in the conference tournament due to the second tiebreaker in the MVC:



Like everyone is saying around the league, this year is going to be full of questions. Ten of the top 14 MVC scorers in 2012-13, eight of the top nine rebounders, five of the top six assist-makers, and seven of the top 10 three point shooters will not be in the league this year. ISUr will only have two players with 10+ games experience in D1, under a second-year novice head coach who failed to live up to expectations last year. Drake has a new coach. Perennial contender Creighton is gone. And how will Loyola adjust to MVC play?

Unlike most of the people in the league who downplay Loyola's ability to compete, I'm optimistic, and think the difference between Horizon play and MVC isn't as big as they think. Many of the naysayers against Loyola use RPI numbers to shortchange Loyola's ability to compete, ironically using a measure that was specifically devised to exclude leagues like the MVC from gaining multiple tournament bids. But the transition to the MVC will certainly be a shock (and a motivator, I think) for the student athletes and athletic department leadership at Loyola who has a sense of complacency in the Horizon. I believe Loyola won't be embarrased, but there will have to be a new sense of urgency to meet the challenge. It will be all be worth it just to have a more open, equitable, exciting and challenging league to compete in.

Fair analysis.

WSU 17-1
ISUb 14-4
UNI 12-6
BU 11-7
MSU 9-9
LU 8-10
UE 7-11
ISU 6-12
DU 4-14
SIU 2-16

My WSU record might be slightly optimistic, but I have a lot of confidence in what we return and considering how much the MVC as a whole lost last year, I like our chances.

As far as Loyola goes, I can see you possibly winning home games against everyone but WSU and ISUb. Not saying you beat them all, but I think you have a shot at them. I'd expect at least 5 home wins. I don't know how well you guys play on the road, but can see you having legit shots at SIU, DU, ISU, UE and MSU. I'd think you win at least 2 of those and probably 3.

I'm also predicting that if you choose to show up in STL on Thursday, you can kick back and just enjoy a couple of games of basketball and prepare for the next day. Or save a vacation day and show up on Friday like many do.

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