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One of the first ways I like to break down the conference schedule is to figure out where we are going to get road wins. Drake and Southern Illinois look like they might be our best chances at road victories-- the Salukis were 5-4 in conference at home last year, (although they did shock the Shockers), and Drake was 4-5 at home (although they did beat Creighton). Drake has a new coach, and Southern has the aforementioned glaring weakness in their post play.
Another good possibility is Illinois State, whose entire roster seems to have turned over. They could be unexpectedly good if their highly-touted recruits come together under Coach Mueller, but most people around here think next year is reserved for a complete retooling of the ISU program. I'm not sure what the reception will be for Porter Moser making his return to Redbird Arena-- it seems like there is some residual good will for Moser, and if the Redbirds get off to a bad start, the home partisans might be neutralized a good bit.
Missouri State tends to play really well at home.... despite their poor record last year, they were 6-3 at home, and played Wichita State and UNI pretty close in their home losses. They draw 5500-7k for their conference games, even in a rebuilding year.
Evansville lost their top scorer and top rebounder, so they might be a little vulnerable. They don't draw nearly as well as they did back in their MCC days, but they were still 8-1 last year in conference, losing only to Creighton by three points.
Loyola has played pretty well at Bradley recently, winning at Carver Arena in 2011-12 and 2010-11. But most people are picking Bradley to step up to 4th place in the league this year, and conference games are a lot different from non-con and Bracket Buster games.
One thing is for certain-- Loyola will not be playing any road conference games in mausoleums like we often did in the Horizon. There will be 25-piece live bands, 4500-13,000 spectators, rowdy students, knowledgeable fans, and perhaps twice as much media at every stop. Right off the bat in January, we've got nine grueling conference games in a four week span, with never more than four days in between games.
I would be OK with it if we could go 6-3 at home and 2-7 on the road. Anything more would be gravy, and given the big distance expected between the top three and the rest of the league, that might be enough to get us to squeak into 5th (maybe even 4th?) place, depending on tiebreakers.
PS: Welcome to the board, Robbie Aces. Yes, Loyola has always had a lot of trouble drawing on weekends and especially during semester breaks. So far, even with early fall sports, the students seem to be a lot more psyched about the new conference and the step up in competition.
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