Sunday, January 11, 2015 4:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago

Since Loyola joined the MVC last year, Wichita State is 24-0 against conference foes and 38-3 overall. Their only losses in the past year and a half have come against 2014 NCAA runner-up Kentucky in the Round of 32, in overtime at #9 Utah, and against George Washington in the Diamond Head Classic tournament final. You’d be hard pressed to find fans of all but a couple teams in the country that wouldn’t gladly trade their team’s performance for a record like that. Nevertheless, there’s a creeping sense that this year’s Shockers, currently ranked #15, have some vulnerabilities.

Besides the two losses so far on the season-- both to excellent teams-- the Shockers have been pressed much harder in several games this year without a reliable and consistent inside scorer. Besides just scoring like clockwork when the chips were down, Cleanthony Early-- now with the New York Knicks-- worked so well in tandem with the rest of the starring cast of Baker, Van Vleet, Cotton, and the inside role players that the scoring options came from multiple angles using a variety of weapons. Most of the big guns are back, along with some talented newcomers and experienced role players stepping up in minutes, but the varieties of ways the Shockers can beat a team have lost a dimension or two.

Wichita State starts 6’7” senior forward Darius Carter, 6’3 senior guard Tekele Cotton, 6’4” junior guard Evan Wessel, 6’3” junior guard Ron Baker, and 6’0” junior point guard Fred VanVleet, all core members of last year’s undefeated regular season team. The top players off the bench are 6’7” freshman forward Rashard Kelly, 6’6” sophomore forward Zach Brown, 6’7” freshman forward Shaquille Morris, 6’0” freshman backup point guard Ria’n Holland, 6’11” juco center Bush Wamukota, and 6’10” freshman center Rauno Nurger (although Nurger has not appeared in the last two games). Although it may seem like there are a lot of freshmen, Holland and Morris redshirted last season, and Brown and Nurger understudied at Sunrise Academy.

Baker (16.6), VanVleet (11.1), and Carter (12.0) each average in double figure points per game, with Cotton chipping in 9.6. Each of the five starters average between 3.1 and 6.2 rebounds per game. Six different Shockers have five blocks or more, and the trio of VanVleet, Cotton, and Baker combine to average more than 4.5 steals per game. It’s a similar team concept on rebounding and defending on the perimeter as it was last season, with Baker and Carter taking on slightly more scoring responsibilities. But where the Shockers show vulnerability is buried in a few key stats.

VanVleet and Cotton’s shooting percentage has dropped markedly, both inside and outside the arc, with VanVleet shooting only 37% from the field (48% last year) and Cotton shooting only 29% from three (38% last year). Carter—Early’s putative replacement—has a higher shooting percentage overall, but does not shoot from three point range, and doesn’t have Early’s passing ability inside. It may seem like Baker takes a lot of three point shots, but he’s taking 5% fewer of his total shots from behind the arc this year as making penetration and getting into the lane has become more important. The Shockers are getting to the line an average of three fewer times per game, and their shooting percentage there has declined from 73% last year to 67% this season. Taken together, these drop-offs in efficiency, effective court spacing, and decline in variety of tools has kept the Shockers from pulling away from a few opponents as they did with ease last year. But the Shockers are still loaded with talent, physicality, energy, great coaching, and experience—still almost always enough to get over a bad night or a stellar performance from a fired-up opponent looking for a signature win.

The Ramblers are coming off their first MVC road conference win, at Evansville, in which they overcame a 6-point second half deficit and proved that their non-con performance wasn’t a fluke. In recent years, an emotional win like that would often spell a letdown for Loyola. If the Ramblers can come out with purpose and focus in front of their first large home crowd of the year, they might be able to hang with the Shockers until crunch time. Avoiding steals and turnovers, staying relatively even on the glass, and playing smart, sharing defense has been the pathway for teams like Utah, Alabama, Hawaii, George Washington, and Illinois State to force the Shockers to make do-or-die plays at the end of the game this year. Getting to that point takes a sustained effort, cool heads, and disciplined execution, but if the Ramblers can get there, they’ve got their chance for a signature win before an eager crowd.

Loyola game notes: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... 110aaa.pdf

Wichita State game notes: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... a_wich.pdf

Television: ESPNU (must have a cable provider that includes ESPNU to watch online)

Vegas odds: Wichita State by 5.5

Any word on Montel James' injury status?

How about Jay Knuth? I know he came back after getting hurt in the UE game, but is he good to go Sunday?

I just wanted to stop by and say that I have been extremely impressed with Loyola to this point in the season. You have done a 180 since last year, and a win on Sunday would move the Ramblers from good team to title contender. I'm hopeful my Shockers are able to come out of Gentile Arena with a win.

The above analysis of WSU is right on. WSU has been weak in the paint (after Carter who sometimes struggles with fouls), but Shaq Morris (6-7, 260 and explosive and nimble) has had back-to-back great games. He's had issues with effort and consistency, so we are hoping he plays well in Chicago. The weak frontcourt has made the backcourt offense struggle a bit more than expected.

Two minor clarifications from the above report. Ri'an Holland is a 6-0 SG (can't play the point) and has recently lost his rotational spot to 6-2 freshman Corey Henderson who plays both guard positions. Rauno Nurger has not played in the last two contests due to illness. He's offensively skilled and quite mobile for 6-10, but he's not strong on defense or the boards.

I look forward to an excellent game this weekend!

Thanks for pointing that out. I just made the lazy assumption Holland was a point guard because of his size and the fact his listed weight is 148. I saw him play in the Hawaii tournament and was impressed that Marshall played a small freshman so late in such close games-- I remember he hit one big three from the corner. I looked up Nurger, but didn't find any specific mention of why he missed the games.

One thing is for sure:
Our analyst, Johnny Junction, is better than any analyst the Shockers can put up against him.
So there, Shockers!

Unfortunately will be traveling and miss the game. Hopefully good wifi in flight to follow along on game tracker. This is a great opportunity for Loyola. I don't think we beat WSU, but we should be able to go out and compete hard. Put on a show in front of what promises to be a good home crowd. I imagine they'll key hard on Doyle, so will need others to step up and make shots. Personally think we'll have to get the ball in the paint early and often to force tough closeouts and find good looks.

Shocker board:

http://shockernet.net/forum/showthread. ... ISCUSSIONS

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Cigarboy sucks!

I see one person over there going for the reverse-jinx picking a Loyola win.

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MBB Scholarship Chart

I'm registered on their board and made one or two posts last year.

I'm tempted to go on a Trolling Patrol there and stir the pot a bit, but that would be wrong.

I predict Kansas native Ben Richardson will have a big game against the Shockers, hitting two or three 3s. He's been fairly quiet recently.